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Dr Stefan Hajkowicz, Principal Scientist in Strategy and Foresight, Data 61, CSIRO
- In July, CSIRO released its Global Megatrends report, which provides an evidence-based approach about how the world will change over the coming 10 to 20 years. This has changed significantly since the last publication of the report in 2012.
- The first of the megatrends is the need to adapt to climate change. In ten years, this has shifted from debating whether or not it exists to being the lived experience of many people. This involves emissions reductions and climate change adaptation, which we are under prepared for given the impacts are being felt sooner and more intensely than expected.
- Data at the meteorological monitoring station in Cape Grim, Tasmania shows a consistent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since 1980, and this is the fundamental driver of extreme weather events. An example of which has seen Wivenhoe Dam filling from 30 to 40% to 160% of its capacity in five days.
- Another example of this is extreme heat, which has significant impacts on human health and wellbeing, and kills more than all other categories of natural hazard put together.
- This is also related to the prevalence of severe droughts and the ability of our water supply system to cope with this. This has further implications for land use planning.
- The second megatrend is being leaner, cleaner and greener around resource constraints across food, water and mineral energy resources. Given increased resource consumption and population across the Asia Pacific region, it is critical to focus on the demand and supply of food, electricity and minerals.
- Notably, Queensland has made an important first step in the transition, having launched the $62 billion, energy plan. But this will require consideration of a number of challenges such as minerals and rare element production required to meet the increasing demand we will see in the future.
- The expanding healthcare sector is another megatrend, which is seeing rapidly increasing government spending. This must shift before this budget constraint restricts obtaining the best healthcare outcomes for Australians and requires preventative health interventions.
- Geopolitical shifts are another megatrend which is playing out in several ways, such as increased military spending, which is reaching levels seen around World War II. This is also relevant for fertilisers and pharmaceuticals, which are largely produced overseas. There is also a large importance on sovereign capability and securing supply chains in this area to mitigate geopolitical risks.
- Diving into digital is another megatrend and was accelerated over Covid across multiple industries such as online retail, education and health, in addition to the remote working undertaken by businesses. This is changing mobility trends and has implications for physical and digital infrastructure planning.
- Technology and artificial intelligence are the next megatrend, which is also playing out across multiple areas, including in science, technology, the arts and humanities.
- The last of the megatrends is the human dimension, signifying the trust and information available in the world today. This includes thinking about privacy and confidentiality issues, data ethics, security and governance.
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